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Turkey, Armenia due to sign historic reconciliation deal
2009-10-08
ANKARA (AFP) - Turkey and Armenia will sign landmark deals this weekend to normalise ties, in a major step towards ending nearly a century of hostility over their bloody history, Russian and US officials said Thursday. The ceremony will see the two neighbours, at odds over the World War I massacres of Armenians under Ottoman rule, sign two protocols, agreed under Swiss mediation, to establish diplomatic ties for the first time and open their border which has been sealed for more than a decade. Although neither Turkey nor Armenia confirmed the date for the ceremony, the United States and Russia -- a close ally of Yerevan reportedly invited to the event -- said the accords would be inked on Saturday in Zurich. US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton will attend the signing ceremony, officials in Washington said. "The secretary is going to start off (her European tour) by going to Zurich where she will attend the signing of two protocols between the governments of Turkey and Armenia," senior diplomat Philip Gordon told reporters. Both countries have much to gain from reconciliation. An agreement could help Turkey's troubled bid to join the European Union and boost its desire for more influence in the Caucasus while landlocked Armenia could see its economy improve and find itself closer to the West. But Saturday's signing marks only the first step in a lengthy process during which the two countries need their respective parliaments to ratify the protocols in order to take effect. Although both governments have the parliamentary majority for the adoption of the protocols, they are not expected to rush ahead due to domestic opposition. The Armenian leadership is under fire at home for allowing the creation of a commission to study the Ottoman-era massacres of Armenians under the deal with Turkey -- a point that critics say calls into question Yerevan's genocide claims. Armenians say that 1.5 million of their kinsmen were systematically killed by Ottoman Turks during 1915-1917. Turkey, which says the figure is inflated and denies genocide took place, has refused to establish diplomatic ties over Yerevan's campaign to have the killings recognised as genocide. A dispute over Nagorny-Karabakh -- an Armenian-majority enclave which broke free from Azerbaijan after a war by Yerevan-backed Armenian separatists in the early 1990s -- also has the potential to spoil the rapprochement. In 1993, Turkey closed its border with Armenia to support close ally Azerbaijan, which has strong ethnic, trade and energy links with Ankara. Turkish officials have said that the border will remain closed unless Yerevan and Baku make progress towards resolving the conflict. "The lack of progress on Nagorny-Karabakh could leave the protocols in limbo as the government could submit the protocols to parliament, but not seek a vote on them," said Mustafa Aydin, a professor of international relations from Ankara's TOBB University. Armenia rejects any link between Nagorny-Karabakh and the rapprochement process. Beril Dedeoglu, an international relations professor at Galatasaray University, said even limited progress, such as partial withdrawal of Armenian soldiers from the enclave, could give Turkey room to move on the protocols. "Such a move could be perceived as a sign of Armenia's good will, preventing the dispute from deadlocking reconciliation efforts," she said. But concessions on Nagorny-Karabakh would not sit well with Armenian public opinion and the influential diaspora that is already uneasy over the protocols, analysts say. The signing ceremony will precede an eagerly anticipated a World Cup football qualification match between the two countries. Turkish President Abdullah Gul has invited Armenian President Serzh Sarkisian to watch the second leg of the qualifier on Wednesday. It remains unclear whether Sarkisian will come. Gul visited Armenia in September 2008 for the first-leg.
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