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Wide financial sector fears to drive market
2008-09-13
NEW YORK (Reuters) - Even if the fate of Lehman Brothers (LEH.N) is resolved this weekend, Wall Street is likely to remain on edge next week because of fears over the health of other big financial companies. As with the collapse of investment bank Bear Stearns back in March, investors are bracing for weekend developments on Lehman that could again reshape the U.S. financial landscape as fallout from the credit crisis escalates. Having failed to reach deals to raise desperately needed capital, Lehman goes into the weekend trying to sell itself or part of its business. "Investor sentiment is braced for the worst news possible," said John Kosar, market technician and president of Asbury Research in Chicago. "When you have extreme circumstances like we're having now it's very hard to try to figure out what to do next." Sources with direct knowledge of the talks said U.S. authorities were in intensive discussions with Lehman on options including an outright sale. For more see . The U.S. Treasury and Federal Reserve were engaged in the talks, which could wrap up this weekend, one source said. Lehman's woes underscore the severity of the credit crisis which began more than a year ago as the U.S. housing slump swelled losses stemming from soured mortgage investments. Unease about Lehman's future kept investors anxious about the health of the U.S. financial system and weighed on financial shares on Friday, causing U.S. stocks to end little changed. For the week, the Dow rose 1.8 percent, the S&P 500 rose 0.8 percent and Nasdaq gained 0.2 percent. But even if the Lehman issue is resolved, attention is seen shifting to other financial firms. Leading brokerage Merrill Lynch & Co Inc (MER.N) and American International Group (AIG.N) ,once the world's largest insurer by market capitalization, are among the other companies threatened by the credit maelstrom. "One of the concerns is not so much Lehman. You can resolve Lehman, but then what's going to happen is people are going to look at Merrill and wonder if it's in danger like Lehman was. They're going to look at AIG and say, 'now we'll play with AIG,"' said Stanley Nabi, vice chairman at Silvercrest Asset Management Group in New York. "What has to happen is some change in the mind-set. By that, I mean there has to be an idea that the housing sector is bottoming. I don't mean prices, I mean demand for houses and inventories." The U.S. Federal Reserve's next scheduled policy-setting meeting on Tuesday will also draw investor focus. While the Fed is widely expected to keep interest rates steady at 2 percent, investors will scrutinize the Fed's accompanying assessment of the economic outlook for clues about corporate profit prospects. Additionally, the spotlight will fall on any Fed comments on the current financial market turmoil after the government's bailout of home finance giants Fannie Mae (FNM.N) and Freddie Mac (FRE.N) and Lehman's problems. Next week's calendar also features the release of key economic data, including the August Consumer Price Index on Tuesday. Also high on the economic agenda is a report on August industrial production set for release on Monday, August housing starts on Wednesday and on Thursday: weekly jobless claims and a report on business activity in the Mid-Atlantic region by the Philadelphia Federal Reserve. In other areas, Hurricane Ike was shaping up to be the biggest storms to hit Texas in nearly 50 years and could hammer insurers. (Additional reporting by Steven C. Johnson; Editing by Leslie Adler)
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